Dan Sullivan
(R) - Incumbent, seeking third term; at about 42% in primary (certified), advancing to RCV general
Mary Peltola
(D) - Former US Rep; led primary at about 49% (certified), advancing to RCV general; sole Democrat on ballot after Leslie withdrew
Dan J. Sullivan Jr.
(R) - Retired teacher from Petersburg; name-sharing 3rd-place finisher (certified), advancing to RCV general
AtlasIntel (field dates unconfirmed, reported Nov 2, LV, MoE 4%): Peltola 50, Sullivan 45 (Peltola +5, field dates unconfirmed); NYT/Siena (released Nov 1, field dates unconfirmed, LV): Peltola 48, Sullivan 46 (Peltola +2, within MoE, statistical tie); Alaska Survey Research (fielded Oct 26-29, 1,326 LV): Peltola 51, Sullivan 49 (Peltola +2, within MoE, statistical tie); Rasmussen Reports (fielded Oct 12-15, 775 LV, MoE 3%): Peltola 44, Sullivan 42 first round (Peltola +2, within MoE, statistical tie); Public Policy Polling (fielded Oct 14-15, 2026, 578 RV, D-aligned firm): Peltola 48, Sullivan 47 (Peltola +1, within MoE, statistical tie); Data for Progress (released Oct 20, field dates unconfirmed, LV, MoE 4%, D-aligned, treat with caution): Peltola 51, Sullivan 49 in RCV simulation; InsiderAdvantage (fielded Oct 9-10, 2026, LV, MoE 2.83%): Peltola 50, Sullivan 48 (Peltola +2, within MoE, RCV result); Alaska Survey Research (fielded Oct 1-3, 1,512 LV): Peltola 47, Sullivan 45, Dan J. Sullivan Jr. 5%, Heikes 3% first round; Peltola 51, Sullivan 49 in RCV final round (Alaska Story, PoliticalWire, released Oct 7); NYT/Siena (fielded Sep 24-Oct 1, 504 LV, MoE 5.1%): Peltola 50, Sullivan 43 (Peltola +7, outside MoE); Quantus Insights (released Oct 2, field dates unconfirmed, 758 LV): Sullivan 46, Peltola 46 (tied); Trafalgar Group (fielded Sep 22-24, 1,079 LV, MoE 2.9%, R-leaning firm): Sullivan 46.8, Peltola 45.5, Dan J. Sullivan Jr. 2.8%, Heikes 0.7%, 4.1% undecided (Sullivan +1.3, within MoE, statistical tie); Alaska Survey Research (fielded Sep 10-12, 1,352 LV, MoE 3%): Peltola 48.4, Sullivan 43.8 first round; Peltola hits 50% in RCV Round 2 against all three opponents; Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP (fielded Sep 8-11, 800 LV, MoE 3.5%, bipartisan): Peltola 46, Sullivan 41 first round; Peltola 53, Sullivan 47 in RCV simulation; Rasmussen Reports fielded Sep 13-14 (1,188 LV): Sullivan 39, Peltola 39 (tied first round in 4-way field), Dan J. Sullivan Jr. 7%, Heikes 6%, 9% unsure; Alaska Survey Research Aug 2-5 (1,371 LV, MoE 3%): Peltola 51, Sullivan 49 (RCV final round); Data for Progress Jul 28-Aug 4 (605 LV, MoE 4%, D-aligned): Peltola 47 first round, 53 in simulated RCV final over Sullivan 47; NYT/Siena Jun 15-29: Sullivan 47, Peltola 45. Inside Elections moved from Lean R to Tilt R on Sep 3 (Cook and Sabato remain Toss-up). Sabato's Crystal Ball moved from Toss-up to Lean D on Oct 6, 2026 (Cook and Inside Elections remain Toss-up).
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Ty Masterson
(R) - Senate President, Trump-endorsed; won Aug 4 GOP primary with 42% over Secretary of State Scott Schwab and others
Cindy Holscher
(D) - State senator; won Aug 4 Democratic primary
Emerson College (released Oct 30, field dates unconfirmed, LV): Masterson 50, Holscher 46 (Masterson +4); Global Strategy Group for Holscher campaign (fielded Oct 18-21, D-aligned partisan poll, treat with caution): Holscher 47, Masterson 47 (tied)
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
(D) - Former state legislator from Sitka; led Aug 18 primary with 21.62% (certified); sole active Democratic candidate after Begich endorsed him Aug 28
Tom Begich
(D) - Former state senator; 20.07% (certified); suspended campaign Aug 28 citing funding, endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins; remains on ballot under Alaska RCV rules
Bernadette Wilson
(R) - 10.44% (certified); advancing to RCV general
Alaska Survey Research (fielded Oct 23-25, 1,068 LV): Kreiss-Tomkins 51%, Wilson 31%, Bronson 12% first round (final-round simulation not confirmed for this wave); NYT/Siena (released Nov 1, field dates unconfirmed, LV): Kreiss-Tomkins 54, Wilson 46 in RCV simulation; Data for Progress (released Oct 20, field dates unconfirmed, LV, MoE 4%, D-aligned, treat with caution): Kreiss-Tomkins 53, Wilson 47 in RCV simulation; Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP (fielded Sep 8-11, 800 LV, MoE 3.5%, bipartisan): Kreiss-Tomkins 40, Wilson 20, Bronson 14 first round; Kreiss-Tomkins 55, Wilson 45 in RCV simulation (Begich remains on ballot but is suspended; Taylor 7% is not on the November certified ballot). Cook Political Report moved from Lean R to Toss-up on Sep 17, 2026, citing Republican split vote and AARP poll data; Sabato's Crystal Ball moved from Likely R to Toss-up Sep 3, 2026. Both Cook and Sabato now rate the race Toss-up. Two Democrats led the Aug 18 primary; with Begich's withdrawal the effective matchup is Kreiss-Tomkins (D) against Wilson and Bronson (both R).
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Tommy Tuberville
(R) - US Senator, won May 19 primary with 85%, Trump-endorsed
Doug Jones
(D) - Former US Senator, won May 19 primary with 78%
Chism Strategies (D-aligned firm, released Oct 29, field dates unconfirmed, treat with caution): Tuberville 48, Jones 45 (Tuberville +3, within MoE)
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Katie Hobbs
(D) - Incumbent; won Jul 21 Democratic primary unopposed
Andy Biggs
(R) - US Rep, Trump-endorsed; won Jul 21 GOP primary over Schweikert
Noble Predictive Insights, fielded Aug 10-13 (LV): Hobbs 48, Biggs 35 (Hobbs +13); AARP Jul 26-28 (MoE 3.2%): Hobbs 52, Biggs 44 (Hobbs +8); Emerson (Jul 2026 pre-primary): Hobbs 44, Biggs 43; Biggs won Jul 21 GOP primary with ~70%
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Ned Lamont
(D) - Incumbent seeking third term; won Aug 11 Democratic primary over state Rep. Josh Elliott approx. 67-33%
Ryan Fazio
(R) - State senator; GOP nominee
Lamont leads Fazio 49.7-29.5 in general matchup (SHU/WFSB/CT Insider Jul 21-26).
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Ashley Moody
(R) - Appointed incumbent; won Aug 18 GOP primary with about 80% over Chris Gleason (14%) and two others
Angie Nixon
(D) - Florida state Rep., democratic socialist; upset front-runner Alex Vindman in Aug 18 Dem primary 56.1% to 43.9% (705,192 to 552,774 votes, CNN, NBC News projection)
Stetson University Poll (fielded Sep 14-21, n=830): Moody 51, Nixon 40 (Moody +11); Sabato's Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report both rate Safe R; Inside Elections moved to Likely R on Oct 15, 2026. UNF PORL fielded Jul 8-17 (848 LV, MoE 3.8%): Moody 50, Nixon 42 (pre-primary general-election matchup, pollster tested both Vindman and Nixon as Democratic opponents). Pre-primary vs. Vindman (now outdated): WLRN/Florida Phoenix Jul 20: Moody 50, Vindman 40; AIF Jun 3-7: Moody 47, Vindman 40.
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Byron Donalds
(R) - US Rep, Trump-endorsed; won Aug 18 GOP primary with about 48% over Jay Collins (25%), James Fishback (10%), and Paul Renner (9%)
David Jolly
(D) - Former GOP congressman who switched parties; won Aug 18 Dem primary with about 61% after Jerry Demings dropped out in June following a prostate cancer diagnosis
St. Pete Polls (released ~Oct 28, field dates unconfirmed, 913 LV, MoE 3.2%): Donalds 48, Jolly 46 (Donalds +2, within MoE, statistical tie); NYT/Siena (fielded Oct 19-25, field dates per press reports): Donalds 48, Jolly 44 (Donalds +4); UNF PORL (fielded Oct 12-19, 1,471 LV): Donalds 49, Jolly 47 (Donalds +2, within MoE); Stetson University (fielded Oct 1-9, released Oct 13, LV): Donalds 52, Jolly 41 (Donalds +11); Mason-Dixon for NBC6 (field dates unconfirmed, reported Oct 7, LV): Donalds 48, Jolly 41, 10% undecided (Donalds +7); Change Research (fielded Oct 8-10, D-aligned, treat with caution): Donalds 47, Jolly 47 (tied); Stetson University (fielded Sep 14-21, n=830): Donalds 51, Jolly 39 (Donalds +12; contrasts sharply with St. Pete Polls statistical tie same period, likely a methodological difference); St. Pete Polls (fielded Sep 15-17, 913 LV, MoE 3.2%): Donalds 44, Jolly 43 (statistical tie); UNF Jul 8-17: Donalds 46, Jolly 41 (general matchup, MoE +/-3.8%); Emerson Jul 9-11: Jolly 46, Donalds 42 (general matchup)
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Jon Ossoff
(D) - Incumbent
Mike Collins
(R) - US Rep, Trump-endorsed, won Jun 16 runoff 55.5% over Derek Dooley
InsiderAdvantage (fielded Sep 22-23, 1,200 LV, R-leaning firm): Ossoff 50, Collins 42 (8% undecided, Ossoff +8); YouGov (fielded Sep 15-18, 3,447 RV, MoE 2.7%): Ossoff 51, Collins 41 (Ossoff +10); Quantus Insights fielded Sep 14-16 (645 LV, MoE 4.3%): Ossoff 48.2, Collins 44.4 (Ossoff +3.8, within MoE); Rasmussen Reports fielded Sep 14 (1,019 LV, MoE 3%): Ossoff 51, Collins 42 (Ossoff +9); Trafalgar Group fielded Sep 10-12 (1,091 LV, MoE 2.9%, R-leaning firm): Ossoff 49.4, Collins 42.8 (Ossoff +6.6); InsiderAdvantage Aug 16-17 (800 LV, MoE 3.46%): Ossoff 50, Collins 43 (Ossoff +7); AARP Jul 13-16: Ossoff 52, Collins 43 (1,060 LV, MoE 3%); Fox News Jun 23-27: Ossoff 56, Collins 43
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Rick Jackson
(R) - Won Jun 16 runoff over Trump/Kemp-endorsed Burt Jones; Trump endorsed Jul 22
Keisha Lance Bottoms
(D) - Former Atlanta mayor; won Dem primary
State Navigate (fielded Oct 23-27, LV): Bottoms 49, Jackson 46 (Bottoms +3 without undecided push; Bottoms 50, Jackson 47 with leaners); Echelon Insights for NetChoice (fielded Oct 16-23, 508 LV, MoE 5.2%): Bottoms 49, Jackson 48 (Bottoms +1, within MoE, statistical tie); Quantus Insights (fielded Oct 15-17, 755 LV, MoE 3.8%): Jackson leads Bottoms by 1.6 points (statistical tie, 4.5% undecided); AJC/UGA School of Public and International Affairs (fielded Oct 7-15, 1,000 LV, MoE 3.1%): Jackson 46, Bottoms 45 (Jackson +1, statistical tie); InsiderAdvantage (fielded Oct 12-13, 800 LV, MoE 3.46%): Jackson 49, Bottoms 47 (Jackson +2, within MoE, statistical tie); InsiderAdvantage (fielded Sep 22-23, 1,200 LV): Jackson 48, Bottoms 46 (Jackson +2, 6% undecided); YouGov (fielded Sep 15-18, 3,447 RV, MoE 2.7%): Jackson 45, Bottoms 44 (statistical tie, 9% undecided); Rasmussen Reports (fielded Sep 14, published Sep 16, 1,019 LV, MoE 3%): Jackson 48, Bottoms 45 (Jackson +3, within MoE); InsiderAdvantage Aug 16-17 (800 LV, MoE 3.46%): Jackson 46.3, Bottoms 46.2 (statistical tie); Natural Gas Assoc of GA Jul 29-Aug 1 (MoE 3.6%): Bottoms 46.4, Jackson 44.9 (statistical tie); Fox News Jul 13-16: Bottoms 52, Jackson 47 (1,060 voters, MoE 3%); State Navigate Jul 10-13: Bottoms 51, Jackson 44; Wick Jun 27-30: tied 43-43
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Ashley Hinson
(R) - Congresswoman, Trump-endorsed, won Jun 2 primary 73.9%
Josh Turek
(D) - State representative, won Jun 2 primary 62.6%
AtlasIntel (field dates unconfirmed, reported Nov 2, LV, MoE 3%): Turek 51, Hinson 46 (Turek +5, field dates unconfirmed); YouGov (fielded Oct 26-29, 2,020 LV, MoE 3.1%): Turek 50, Hinson 49 (Turek +1, within MoE, statistical tie); NYT/Siena (released Nov 1, field dates unconfirmed, LV): Turek 48, Hinson 47 (Turek +1, within MoE, statistical tie); co/efficient (released ~Oct 29, field dates unconfirmed, per polling aggregator): Hinson 48, Turek 46 (Hinson +2); InsiderAdvantage (fielded Oct 21-22, released Oct 23, 2026, 1,200 LV, MoE 2.8%, R-leaning firm): Hinson 47, Turek 45 (Hinson +2, within MoE); co/efficient (fielded Oct 15-19, 2026, per polling aggregator): Hinson 49, Turek 46 (Hinson +3); New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group for Cook Political Report (fielded Oct 9-13, 602 LV): Turek 46, Hinson 44 (Turek +2, within MoE); Trafalgar Group (fielded Oct 13-15, 1,094 LV, MoE ~3%, R-leaning firm): Hinson 46, Turek 44 (Hinson +2, within MoE, 6%+ undecided); YouGov (fielded Oct 6-12, 2,245 LV, MoE 3.1%): Turek 47, Hinson 46 (Turek +1, within MoE, statistical tie); Marist Poll (fielded Oct 8-11, LV, MoE 6.6%): Turek 48, Hinson 45 (Turek +3, within MoE); Emerson for Nexstar (fielded Oct 5-6, 650 LV, CI +/-3.8%): Hinson 47, Turek 45, Laehn (L) 2%, 7% undecided (Hinson +2, within CI); CNN/SSRS (fielded Sep 29-Oct 5, MoE 4.2%, LV): Hinson 45, Turek 43 (Hinson +2, within MoE, ~28% soft or undecided); Suffolk University (fielded Oct 1-4, 500 LV, MoE 4.4%): Turek 48, Hinson 44, Laehn (L) ~2% (Turek +4); NYT/Siena (fielded Sep 21-Oct 1, released Oct 3, 2026): Hinson 48, Turek 47 (Hinson +1, within MoE); Fox News (fielded Sep 24-28, 881 LV, MoE 3%, bipartisan Beacon/Shaw): Turek 49, Hinson 47 (Turek +2, within MoE); Rasmussen Reports (fielded Sep 28-30, 1,048 LV, MoE 3%): Turek 47, Hinson 43 (Turek +4); Quantus Insights (fielded Sep 28-29, MoE 3.8%): Hinson 47.1, Turek 45.8 (Hinson +1.3, within MoE); Trafalgar Group (fielded Sep 16-18, 1,089 LV, MoE 2.9%, R-leaning firm): Hinson 44, Turek 42.1 (Hinson +1.9, within MoE, statistical tie); InsiderAdvantage (fielded Sep 23, R-leaning firm): Turek 47, Hinson 46, Leith (L) 2% (Turek +1, within MoE, statistical tie); Marist Poll (fielded Sep 17-20, 1,050 RV, MoE 4.4%): Turek 50, Hinson 42 (Turek +8; registered voters); co/efficient fielded Sep 14-16 (831 LV, MoE +/-3.39%): Hinson 46, Turek 42 (Hinson +4, 9% undecided); Cygnal for Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation (field dates unconfirmed, released Sep 15, R-leaning sponsor, treat with caution): Turek 43, Hinson 43 (tied); Rasmussen Reports fielded Sep 8-10 (1,031 LV, MoE +/-2%): Turek 45, Hinson 40, Laehn 4%, 11% undecided (Turek +5; cross-tab: Turek +11 among women, Hinson +3 among men; Turek 83% D, 14% R, 49% unaffiliated; Hinson 75% R, 5% D, 28% unaffiliated); Global Strategy Group for Turek campaign (fielded Aug 27-31, D-aligned partisan internal poll, treat with caution): Turek 46, Hinson 42, Libertarian Laehn 6%; Emerson for Nexstar fielded Aug 31-Sep 1 (750 LV, CI +/-3.6%): Hinson 50, Turek 45 (Hinson +5); Wedgewood (fielded Aug 29): Hinson 50, Turek 48 (Hinson +2); Suffolk University fielded Aug 20-23 (500 LV, MoE 4.4%): Hinson 45, Turek 41 (Hinson +4); Emerson fielded Aug 2-4 (712 LV, MoE 3.7%): Hinson 48, Turek 45; Fox News Jun 23-27: Turek 50, Hinson 46; NYT/Siena Jun 15-27: Hinson 48, Turek 46
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Zach Lahn
(R) - Businessman; upset win with 37.65% over Rep. Randy Feenstra
Rob Sand
(D) - State Auditor; unopposed for Dem nomination
NYT/Siena (released Nov 1, field dates unconfirmed, LV): Sand 51, Lahn 43 (Sand +8); Marist Poll (fielded Oct 8-11, 2026, 1,100 LV, MoE ~6.6%): Sand 52, Lahn 45 (Sand +7); NPA Polling (R-leaning firm, reported Oct 19, LV, MoE 3.8%): Sand 50, Lahn 45 (Sand +5); NYT/Siena (fielded Sep 22-Oct 1, 606 LV): Sand 52, Lahn 41 (Sand +11); Fox News for Beacon/Shaw (fielded Sep 24-28, 1,008 LV, MoE 3%): Sand 53, Lahn 44 (Sand +9); Marist (fielded Sep 17-20, 1,050 RV, MoE 4.4%): Sand 54, Lahn 42 (Sand +12, registered voters); Emerson fielded Aug 31-Sep 1: Sand 49, Lahn 46; Emerson Aug 2-4 (LV): Sand 48, Lahn 43; Fox News Jun 23-27: Sand 53, Lahn 44; NYT/Siena Jun: Sand 48, Lahn 47
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Roger Marshall
(R) - Incumbent, won Aug 4 GOP primary
Adam Hamilton
(D) - Methodist pastor; won Aug 4 Democratic primary from crowded 11-candidate field
YouGov (fielded Oct 26-29, LV): Hamilton 50, Marshall 49 (Hamilton +1, within MoE, statistical tie); NYT/Siena (released Nov 1, field dates unconfirmed, LV): Hamilton 49, Marshall 44, Graham (L) 4% (Hamilton +5, outside MoE); Washington Post/Schar School (released Oct 30, field dates unconfirmed, LV): Hamilton 52, Marshall 43 (Hamilton +9); Emerson College (released Oct 30, field dates unconfirmed, LV): Hamilton 49, Marshall 45, Graham (L) 3 (Hamilton +4); SSRS for CNN (fielded Oct 20-26, 838 LV, MoE 4.5%, released Oct 29): Hamilton 49, Marshall 45 (Hamilton +4, within MoE); RedBox Research (fielded Oct 20-23, 2026, 1,301 LV): Marshall 46, Hamilton 45 (Marshall +1, within MoE); InsiderAdvantage (fielded Oct 13-14, LV, MoE 2.83%, R-leaning firm): Marshall 48, Hamilton 47 (Marshall +1, within MoE, statistical tie); InsiderAdvantage (fielded Oct 9-10, LV, MoE 2.83%, R-leaning firm): Hamilton 48, Marshall 47 (Hamilton +1, within MoE, statistical tie); YouGov (field dates unconfirmed, released approx. Oct 8): Hamilton 48, Marshall 45 (Hamilton +3); Siena College Research Institute (released Oct 3, field dates unconfirmed, 605 LV, MoE 4.6%): Hamilton 45, Marshall 45 (tied); Trafalgar Group (released Oct 2, field dates unconfirmed, 1,095 LV, MoE 2.9%, R-leaning firm): Hamilton 44, Marshall 44 (tied); Global Strategy Group for Hamilton campaign (fielded Oct 1-2, D-aligned partisan poll, treat with caution): Hamilton 47, Marshall 43, Graham (L) 5%; Wedgewood Polls (field dates unconfirmed, released ~Sep 25-26): Hamilton 50, Marshall 48, Graham (L) 2% (Hamilton +2); Emerson for Nexstar fielded Sep 15-16 (750 LV, MoE 3.6%): Hamilton 45, Marshall 43 (Libertarian Graham 4%, 8% undecided; Hamilton +2, first independent poll to show Hamilton ahead this cycle)
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Susan Collins
(R) - Incumbent, seeking sixth term
Troy Jackson
(D) - Former state Senate president; formally nominated at Jul 25 Bangor convention with 90%+ of delegates; all serious rivals dropped out by Jul 19
NYT/Siena (released Nov 1, field dates unconfirmed, LV): Jackson 51, Collins 45 (Jackson +6); SSRS for CNN (fielded Oct 20-26, 783 LV, MoE 4.5%, released Oct 29): Jackson 49, Collins 45 (Jackson +4); Marist Poll (fielded Oct 22-25, 2026, LV, MoE 6.6%): Jackson 49, Collins 47 (Jackson +2, within MoE; independents favor Jackson 50-41; among all registered voters Jackson +9); Trafalgar Group (fielded Oct 21-23, 1,077 LV, MoE 2.9%, R-leaning firm): Jackson 47, Collins 47 (tied); Fox News (fielded approx. Oct 16-20, released Oct 23, 2026, fielded after Oct 15 debate): Collins 49, Jackson 49 (tied); InsiderAdvantage (fielded Oct 13-14, 2026, 1,200 LV, R-leaning firm, MoE 3.46%): Jackson 49, Collins 47 (Jackson +2, within MoE); Suffolk University (fielded Oct 8-11, LV, MoE 4.4%): Jackson 49, Collins 47 (Jackson +2, within MoE); Washington Post/Schar School (fielded Sep 30-Oct 5, released Oct 9, LV): Jackson 50, Collins 46 (Jackson +4, within MoE); Marist Poll (fielded Oct 1-4, 2026, 1,505 RV, MoE 3.8%): Jackson 51, Collins 47 (Jackson +4, registered voters); CBS News/YouGov (fielded Sep 23-Oct 1, 1,114 RV, MoE 4.7%): Jackson 50, Collins 50 (tied, registered voters); InsiderAdvantage (fielded Sep 26, R-leaning firm): Jackson 46, Collins 46 (tied); Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP (fielded Sep 20-22, 982 LV, MoE 3.13%, bipartisan): Jackson 50, Collins 47 (Jackson +3; voters 50+ favor Collins 53-44); UNH Survey Center Granite State Poll (fielded Sep 17-21, 2026, 1,418 LV, MoE 2.6%): Jackson 51, Collins 47 (within MoE, statistical tie); UMass Lowell/YouGov (released Sep 24, field dates unconfirmed, 650 LV, MoE ~4.5%): Jackson 48, Collins 43 (Jackson +5, 6% undecided); NYT/Portland Press Herald/Siena (fielded Sep 15-22, 619 LV, MoE 4.8%): Collins 49, Jackson 46 (Collins +3, within MoE); Quantus Insights fielded Sep 14-15 (MoE 4.3%): Collins 47.1, Jackson 46.4 (Collins +0.7, within MoE, statistical tie); YouGov (fielded Sep 8): Jackson 48, Collins 44; Rasmussen Reports fielded Sep 8-10 (1,033 LV, MoE +/-2%): Jackson 46, Collins 45 (statistical tie); SRSS for CNN (fielded Aug 31-Sep 7, 880 LV, MoE 3.7%): Jackson 48, Collins 45 (statistical tie); Abacus Data (released Aug 29, field dates unconfirmed): Jackson 52, Collins 43 (LV); Fox News Aug 6-10 (1,000 RV): Jackson 48, Collins 46; UNH Jul 15-20: Jackson 49, Collins 46 (1,236 respondents, MoE +/-2.8%); SurveyUSA Jul: Jackson 45, Collins 44; Senate Majority PAC/Hart Research (Jul 27-Aug 1, D-aligned partisan poll): Jackson 49, Collins 45. Inside Elections moved from Tilt R to Toss-up on Sep 17, 2026 (Inside Elections, Cook and Sabato all now rate Maine Toss-up).
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Ed Markey
(D) - Incumbent; won Sep 1 Democratic primary over Rep. Seth Moulton 64.9% to 35.1% (572,595 to 310,365 votes, final count; AP projection called at 8:31 p.m.)
John Deaton
(R) - Won Sep 1 Republican primary over Nathan Bech; November challenger to Markey
Final Sep 1 primary result: Markey 64.9%, Moulton 35.1% (572,595 to 310,365 votes). Pre-primary polls for context: Emerson College (fielded Aug 28-29, 2026): Markey 60, Moulton 33; UNH Survey Center (released Aug 26, field dates unconfirmed): Markey 63, Moulton 28; Suffolk/Boston Globe Aug 13-16 (500 likely Dem primary voters): Markey 52, Moulton 38
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed
(D) - Progressive public health advocate; won Aug 4 Democratic primary over Rep. Haley Stevens despite $60M+ in outside spending against him (NBC News projection)
Mike Rogers
(R) - Former congressman, 2024 nominee, GOP nominee
NYT/Siena (released Nov 1, field dates unconfirmed, LV): El-Sayed 53, Rogers 42 (El-Sayed +11, statistical outlier vs. other recent polls); Mitchell Research for CBS Detroit (released Oct 28, field dates unconfirmed, LV, MoE 3.8%): El-Sayed 51, Rogers 44 (El-Sayed +7); Glengariff Group for WDIV/Detroit News (fielded Oct 19-22, 600 LV, released Oct 27): El-Sayed 51.4, Rogers 45.1 (El-Sayed +6.3); MSU State of the State Survey/IPPSR (released Oct 26, field dates unconfirmed, LV): El-Sayed 48, Rogers 45.5 (El-Sayed +2.5); InsiderAdvantage (fielded Oct 21-22, 2026, MoE 2.83%, R-leaning firm): El-Sayed 47, Rogers 46 (El-Sayed +1, within MoE, statistical tie); Marist Poll (fielded Oct 15-18, LV, MoE 4.3%): El-Sayed 50, Rogers 48 (El-Sayed +2, within MoE); InsiderAdvantage (fielded Oct 11, MoE 2.83%): El-Sayed 48, Rogers 46 (El-Sayed +2, within MoE); Wedgewood (fielded Oct 8-9): El-Sayed 53, Rogers 47 (treat with caution, MoE unconfirmed); Public First Action for Guidant (released Oct 7, field dates unconfirmed): El-Sayed 48, Rogers 43 (treat with caution, field dates unconfirmed); Quantus Insights (released Oct 7, field dates unconfirmed, 762 LV, MoE 3.9%): El-Sayed 47.6, Rogers 46.5 (El-Sayed +1.1, within MoE, statistical tie); Mitchell Research for CBS Detroit (released Oct 5, field dates unconfirmed, LV, MoE 3.8%): El-Sayed 45.6, Rogers 41.4 (El-Sayed +4.2); YouGov (fielded Sep 22-Oct 4, 3,949 LV, MoE 2.5%): El-Sayed 49, Rogers 48 (El-Sayed +1, within MoE); Fox News (fielded Sep 24-28, 1,028 LV, MoE 3%): El-Sayed 50, Rogers 49 LV; El-Sayed 51, Rogers 48 RV (El-Sayed +1-3, within MoE); Marist (fielded Sep 24-27, 1,235 RV, MoE 3.9%): El-Sayed 51, Rogers 44 (El-Sayed +7, registered voters); Rasmussen Reports (fielded Sep 22): El-Sayed 47, Rogers 44; NYT/Siena (fielded Sep 15-22): El-Sayed 49, Rogers 44 (El-Sayed +5, sample size and MoE unconfirmed); Suffolk University (fielded Sep 16-20, 500 LV, MoE 4.4%): El-Sayed 47, Rogers 40 (El-Sayed +7); InsiderAdvantage (field dates unconfirmed, completed Sep 17, MoE 2.83%): El-Sayed 47, Rogers 45 (El-Sayed +2, treat with caution, field dates unavailable); Washington Post/Schar School fielded Sep 10-14 (803 LV, MoE 3.9%): El-Sayed 48, Rogers 45 (El-Sayed +3, within MoE); Emerson for The Hill fielded Sep 12-14 (1,000 LV, MoE 3%): El-Sayed 48, Rogers 46 (El-Sayed +2, within MoE); Trafalgar Group fielded Sep 7-9 (1,079 LV, MoE 2.9%, R-leaning firm): El-Sayed 46.3, Rogers 44.8 (El-Sayed +1.5, within MoE); SRSS for CNN (fielded Aug 31-Sep 6): El-Sayed 47, Rogers 44 (El-Sayed +3, statistical tie); EPIC-MRA for Detroit News/WDIV-TV (fielded Aug 31-Sep 3, published Sep 8, 600 LV, MoE 4%): Rogers 45.8, El-Sayed 44.4 (Rogers +1.4, within MoE, statistical tie); EPIC-MRA fielded Aug 22-28 (600 LV, MoE 4%): El-Sayed 47, Rogers 43 (El-Sayed +4); IPPSR/MSU (YouGov panel, fielded Aug 10-20, 1,000 adults, released Sep 1): El-Sayed 50, Rogers 45 LV; El-Sayed 48, Rogers 44 RV; AARP fielded Aug 9-11 (877 LV, MoE 3.3%): El-Sayed 48, Rogers 47; TIPP (field dates unconfirmed, post-primary Aug 2026): El-Sayed 45, Rogers 42; Susquehanna fielded Aug 11-17 (800 LV): El-Sayed 46, Rogers 39 (El-Sayed +7); Fox News fielded Aug 6-10 (1,006 RV, MoE 3%): Rogers 51, El-Sayed 47; EPIC-MRA fielded Jul 24-31: Rogers 46, El-Sayed 43; Mitchell Research fielded Jul 28-31 (672 LV): Rogers 45, El-Sayed 45 (tied); Glengariff fielded Jul 22-24: Rogers 49, El-Sayed 39
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Jocelyn Benson
(D) - Secretary of State; won Aug 4 Democratic gubernatorial primary over Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson
John James
(R) - US Rep, Trump-endorsed; won Aug 4 GOP gubernatorial primary over businessman Perry Johnson
Marist Poll (fielded Oct 15-18, 2026, LV, MoE 4.3%): Benson leads James by 6 points LV; leads by 11 points RV; Mitchell Research (fielded Oct 1, 2026, 682 LV, MoE 3.8%): Benson 46, James 39 (Benson +7); Glengariff Group for Detroit News/WDIV-TV (fielded Aug 31-Sep 3, 600 LV, MoE 4%): Benson 47, James 43 (Benson +4); EPIC-MRA fielded Aug 22-28 (600 LV, MoE 4%): Benson 45, James 41 (Benson +4); EPIC-MRA Jul 31 (post-primary): Benson 47, James 38 (Benson +9); Mitchell Research Jul 28-29 (672 LV, post-primary): Benson 46, James 44 (Benson +2); Sabato's Crystal Ball moved from Toss-up to Lean D on Jul 23
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Peggy Flanagan
(D) - Lt. Governor; won Aug 11 DFL Senate primary over Rep. Angie Craig 58.7-39.7%
Michele Tafoya
(R) - NRSC-endorsed; won Aug 11 GOP Senate primary with about 52% over state party-endorsed Schwarze and Royce White
KSTP/SurveyUSA (fielded Oct 24-28, 714 LV): Flanagan 48, Tafoya 41 (Flanagan +7); NYT/Siena (fielded Oct 19-26, 752 LV, MoE 4.1%): Flanagan 54, Tafoya 40 (Flanagan +14, noted as statistical outlier by analysts; no other poll shows a lead this large); Rasmussen Reports (fielded Oct 20-21, LV, R-leaning firm): Flanagan 48, Tafoya 45 (Flanagan +3); Trafalgar Group (fielded Oct 13-15, 2026, LV, MoE ~3%, R-leaning firm): Flanagan 48, Tafoya 45 (Flanagan +3); KSTP/SurveyUSA (released Oct 14, field dates unconfirmed): Flanagan 45, Tafoya 42 (Flanagan +3, within MoE); Rasmussen Reports (fielded Oct 5-7, 856 LV, 7% undecided): Flanagan 48, Tafoya 45 (Flanagan +3); Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll (Mason-Dixon, fielded Oct 5-7, 800 LV, MoE 3.5%): Flanagan 47, Tafoya 43 (Flanagan +4, 9% undecided); Morning Consult Daily Agenda Poll (released Oct 9, field dates unconfirmed, RV, MoE 3.1%): Flanagan 45, Tafoya 41 (Flanagan +4); Big Data Poll (fielded Sep 29-30, 2026, with leaners, LV): Flanagan 45.8, Tafoya 43.6 (Flanagan +2.2); InsiderAdvantage (fielded Sep 28-29, LV, MoE 2.95%, R-leaning firm): Flanagan 46, Tafoya 45 (Flanagan +1, within MoE, statistical tie); SurveyUSA (completed Sep 16, field start unconfirmed): Flanagan 42, Tafoya 42 (statistical tie); co/efficient (fielded Sep 14-15, 833 LV, MoE 3.38%): Flanagan 43, Tafoya 42 (Flanagan +1, statistical tie); Quantus Insights (fielded Sep 8-10, 720 LV, MoE 4.2%): Flanagan 48, Tafoya 44 (Flanagan +4); TIPP (fielded Aug 31-Sep 2): Flanagan 44, Tafoya 42 (Flanagan +2, within MoE); KSTP/SurveyUSA (post-primary, Aug 2026): Flanagan 46, Tafoya 41 (Flanagan +5, within MoE).
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Amy Klobuchar
(D) - US Senator; won Aug 11 DFL gubernatorial primary with 89.1%
Lisa Demuth
(R) - MN House Speaker; won Aug 11 GOP gubernatorial primary with about 45% over Trump-endorsed Lindell (33%) and state party-endorsed Qualls; first Black major-party gubernatorial nominee in Minnesota history
Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll (Mason-Dixon, fielded Oct 5-7, 800 LV, MoE 3.5%, released Oct 13): Klobuchar 50, Demuth 41 (Klobuchar +9); KSTP/SurveyUSA (released Oct 14, field dates unconfirmed): Klobuchar leads Demuth by 7 points; co/efficient (fielded Sep 14-15, 833 LV, MoE 3.38%): Klobuchar 47, Demuth 45 (Klobuchar +2, within MoE); KSTP/SurveyUSA (post-primary, Aug 2026): Klobuchar leads statewide moderates 57-25; Demuth leads Klobuchar 44-42 in northeastern MN (within MoE). Pre-primary MN Poll: Klobuchar led Demuth by about 8 pts statewide.
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Kurt Alme
(R) - Former US Attorney, won Jun 2 primary (76%), Daines-endorsed
Alani Bankhead
(D) - Air Force officer, won Jun 2 primary (43.7%)
Seth Bodnar
(I) - Former University of Montana president
American Pulse Research and Polling for NonStop Local (released Oct 5, 2026, field dates unconfirmed, LV): Alme 45, Bodnar 26, Bankhead 19 (Alme well ahead in three-way field)
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Pete Ricketts
(R) - Incumbent, won May 12 primary with 81.8%
Dan Osborn
(I) - Former union leader, 2024 candidate; no poll shows Ricketts pulling clear in a state Trump won by 20 pts
NYT/Siena (fielded Oct 23-29, 809 LV, MoE 4%): Ricketts 49, Osborn 43, 8% undecided (Ricketts +6, outside MoE); NPA Polling (released Oct 12, field dates unconfirmed, R-leaning firm): Ricketts 46, Osborn 43 (Ricketts +3, within MoE 4%); YouGov (released Oct 6, field dates unconfirmed, LV, MoE 3.3%): Osborn 48, Ricketts 47 (Osborn +1, within MoE, statistical tie); co/efficient (fielded Sep 28-30, 2026, 1,113 LV, MoE 2.92%): Ricketts 45, Osborn 40 (11% undecided); Wedgewood (field dates unconfirmed, released Sep 16): Ricketts 52, Osborn 48 (Ricketts +4); SurveyUSA for Grant Forbes LLC (fielded Sep 8-13, 503 LV, MoE 6.4%): Osborn 46, Ricketts 42 (Osborn +4); Impact Research for Osborn for Senate, fielded Aug 9-13 (600 LV, MoE 4%, D-aligned partisan poll, treat with caution): Ricketts 47, Osborn 47 (tied); Feb statewide: Ricketts 48, Osborn 47 (statistical tie); D-aligned Jul poll: Osborn +5 (partisan source, treat with caution); GBAO for Working Class Majority PAC (fielded Oct 18-22, 800 LV, D-aligned sponsor, treat with caution): Osborn 46, Ricketts 45 (Osborn +1, within MoE)
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Joe Lombardo
(R) - Incumbent; won primary with 91%
Aaron Ford
(D) - Attorney General; won primary with 63.8%
RedBox Research (fielded Oct 20-23, 2026, LV): Ford 46, Lombardo 43 (Ford +3); Noble Predictive Insights (released Oct 6, fielded Sep 22-26, 2026, LV, MoE 3.68%): Lombardo 42, Ford 40, Danielle Ford (I) 7% (Lombardo +2, within MoE, statistical tie); Noble Predictive Insights (fielded Oct 7-13, 766 RV, MoE 3.54%, note: release date appears to be Oct 23, 2025 per external source, may be prior-cycle data): Lombardo 40, Ford 37 (23% undecided, Lombardo +3, within MoE, treat with caution); Emerson for KLAS-TV (fielded Sep 5-8, 680 LV, MoE 3.7%): Ford 44, Lombardo 42 (11% undecided); PPP/DGA Jul 15-16: Lombardo 44, Ford 44 (tied, 558 likely voters); Jun 2026: Lombardo 45, Ford 42
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Chris Pappas
(D) - US Rep; won Sep 8 Dem primary about 65% over Manzur (updated count, NBC News, NHPR)
John Sununu
(R) - Former US Senator, Trump-endorsed; won Sep 8 GOP primary about 68.5% over Brown and Sivalingam (updated count, NBC News, Roll Call)
NPA Polling (released Oct 16, field dates unconfirmed, LV, MoE 4%): Pappas 50, Sununu 43 (Pappas +7); YouGov (released Oct 6, field dates unconfirmed, LV, MoE 3.9%): Pappas 51, Sununu 43 (Pappas +8); Rasmussen Reports (fielded Oct 2-4, 2026, 979 LV, MoE 3%): Pappas 49, Sununu 44 (Laplante L 3%, 4% undecided, Pappas +5); New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm for AARP (fielded Sep 28-29, 2026, 1,042 LV, MoE 3.7%, released Oct 6): Pappas 51, Sununu 44 (Pappas +7); Trafalgar Group (fielded Sep 26-27, 1,082 LV, MoE 2.9%, R-leaning firm): Pappas 47, Sununu 41 (Pappas +6); UNH Survey Center Granite State Poll (fielded Sep 17-21, 2026, 1,418 LV, MoE 2.6%): Pappas 50, Sununu 42 (Pappas +8); NYT/Siena (fielded Sep 15-22): Pappas 50, Sununu 45 (Pappas +5, sample size and MoE unconfirmed); InsiderAdvantage (field dates unconfirmed, released Sep 18, LV, MoE 2.83%): Pappas 48, Sununu 40 (Pappas +8; treat with caution, field dates unavailable); co/efficient (fielded Sep 9-11, 958 LV, MoE 3.15%): Sununu 46, Pappas 46 (tied, 9% undecided); Rasmussen Reports fielded Sep 8-10 (1,000 LV, MoE +/-2%): Pappas 45, Sununu 34 in full multi-candidate general field (Constitution Party candidate Laplante 2%, four independents split 11%, 9% undecided; two-way head-to-head would be closer; field dates overlap primary day so cross-tabs reflect mixed pre/post-primary opinion); UNH fielded Aug 20-24: Sununu 45, Pappas 43 in general (Sununu leading, reversal from Jul); St. Anselm fielded Aug 17-18: Pappas 48, Sununu 41; UNH Jul: Pappas 47, Sununu 44 (general)
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Kelly Ayotte
(R) - Incumbent; won Sep 8 GOP primary easily over Fife and McClory (AP called)
Cinde Warmington
(D) - Former executive councilor; won Dem primary, ran effectively unopposed
UNH Survey Center fielded Aug 20-24 (released Aug 27): Ayotte 49, Warmington 39 (2,100 respondents); UNH Survey Center Jun 30: Ayotte 44, Warmington 39
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Kathy Hochul
(D) - Incumbent
Bruce Blakeman
(R) - Nassau County executive; also Conservative Party endorsed
Siena: Hochul 50, Blakeman 25
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Roy Cooper
(D) - Former Governor, Democratic nominee
Michael Whatley
(R) - Former RNC chair, Trump-backed Republican nominee
ECU Poll (reported Oct 8, 2026, field dates unconfirmed, LV, MoE 4%): Cooper 50, Whatley 43 (Cooper +7); ECU Center for Survey Research (fielded Aug 31-Sep 3, 675 LV): Cooper 46, Whatley 39 (Cooper +7; forced choice: Cooper 52, Whatley 44); Trafalgar Group (field dates unconfirmed, released Sep 10, 1,084 LV, MoE 2.9%): Cooper 48, Whatley 42 (Cooper +6); Elon University Poll (fielded Aug 21-31, released Sep 10, LV, MoE 5.6%): Cooper 49, Whatley 38 (Cooper +11); High Point University Aug 3-12 (LV): Cooper 50, Whatley 45 (+5); Carolina Journal Aug 9-10: Cooper 51.5, Whatley 39 (+12.5); Fox News Jul 28-Aug 5 (1,000 RV): Cooper 53, Whatley 44; Elon Univ late Jul: Cooper 53, Whatley 42 (+11); Carolina Forward Aug 2026: Cooper 50, Whatley 43; Emerson Aug 1 (CBS17): Cooper 47, Whatley 41; PPP Jul 10-11: Cooper 48, Whatley 44
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Jon Husted
(R) - Appointed incumbent (filling JD Vance's seat)
Sherrod Brown
(D) - Former three-term senator
NYT/Siena (released Nov 1, field dates unconfirmed, LV): Brown 49, Husted 44 (Brown +5); InsiderAdvantage (fielded Oct 21-22, 2026, 1,200 LV, MoE 2.83%, R-leaning firm): Brown 47, Husted 44 (Brown +3, within MoE); Fox News (fielded Oct 15-19, 2026, 1,592 LV, per RCP aggregator): Brown 52, Husted 47 (Brown +5); Rasmussen Reports (fielded Oct 12-14, 2026, R-leaning firm): Husted 49, Brown 47 (Husted +2, within MoE); Marist Poll (fielded Oct 15-18, LV, MoE 4.5%): Brown 48, Husted 44 (Brown +4); New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group for Cook Political Report (fielded Oct 9-13, 959 LV): Brown 49, Husted 43 (Brown +6); BGSU Democracy and Public Policy Research Network (fielded Oct 2-14, 800 RV, MoE 4.5%): Brown 49, Husted 48 (within MoE, statistical tie); YouGov (released Oct 6, field dates unconfirmed, LV, MoE 2.5%): Brown 49, Husted 45 (Brown +4); CNN/SSRS (fielded Sep 29-Oct 5, 760 RV, MoE 4.5%): Brown 49, Husted 43 (Brown +6); NYT/Siena (fielded Sep 21-Oct 1, released Oct 3, 2026, LV): Brown 49, Husted 46 (Brown +3); Suffolk University for USA TODAY Ohio Network (fielded Sep 23-27, 500 LV, MoE 4.4%): Brown 47, Husted 44 (Redpath L 2%, Levy I 1%, Brown +3, within MoE); Big Data Poll/Buckeye State Poll (field dates unconfirmed, Sep 2026): Brown leads Husted 44.3-39.6 RV, 45.5-41.6 LV (Brown +4-5); Marist Poll (fielded Sep 24-27, 1,298 RV, MoE 3.8%): Brown 51, Husted 43 (Brown +8, independents for Brown 58-33); Rasmussen Reports (fielded Sep 22-23): Brown 46, Husted 43 (Libertarian Redpath 3%, Independent Levy 2%, 7% undecided); Quantus Insights for Newsweek (fielded Sep 21-23, 695 LV, MoE 4.2%): Brown 46, Husted 45 (statistical tie); Trafalgar Group (fielded Sep 14-16, 1,085 LV, MoE 2.9%, R-leaning firm): Brown 45, Husted 42 (Brown +3); InsiderAdvantage fielded Sep 9 (MoE 2.83%): Brown 47, Husted 42 (Brown +5); BGSU Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov fielded Sep 1-10 (1,000 LV, MoE 3.96%): Brown 48, Husted 45 (Libertarian Redpath 2%, Independent Levy 3%); Abacus Data (released Aug 28, field dates unconfirmed): Brown 52, Husted 46; Wedgewood Aug 11-13 (800 LV, MoE 4%): Brown 48, Husted 44; Fox News Aug 6-10 (1,000 RV, MoE 3%): Brown 53, Husted 45; Fox News May 28-Jun 1: Brown 53, Husted 45; AARP Jun 14-16: Brown 48, Husted 45; BGSU/YouGov (field dates unconfirmed, likely early 2026): Husted 50, Brown 47
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Vivek Ramaswamy
(R) - Entrepreneur, won May 5 primary
Amy Acton
(D) - Former state health director, unopposed in primary
Marist Poll (fielded Oct 15-18, 2026, LV, MoE 4.5%): Acton 50, Ramaswamy 43 (Acton +7); Fox News (fielded Oct 15-19, 2026, 1,592 LV, MoE 3%): Acton 50, Ramaswamy 48 (Acton +2, within MoE); BGSU Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov (released Oct 24, field dates unconfirmed, RV, MoE 4.5%): Acton 50, Ramaswamy 44 (Acton +6); co/efficient (fielded Oct 5-6, 925 LV): Ramaswamy 45, Acton 43 (Ramaswamy +2, within MoE, statistical tie); NYT/Siena (fielded Sep 22-Oct 1, released Oct 4, 616 LV): Acton 49, Ramaswamy 45 (Acton +4); Marist Poll (fielded Sep 24-27, 1,298 RV, MoE 3.8%): Acton 50, Ramaswamy 44 (Acton +6, independents for Acton 57-32); Suffolk University for USA TODAY Ohio Network (fielded Sep 23-27, 500 LV, MoE 4.4%): Acton 50, Ramaswamy 41 (Kissick L 3%, Acton +9); BGSU Democracy and Public Policy Research Network fielded Sep 1-10 (1,000 LV, MoE 3.96%): Acton 48, Ramaswamy 45 (Acton +3, within MoE); Wedgewood Aug 11-13 (800 LV, MoE 4%): Acton 47, Ramaswamy 46; Fox News Aug 6-10 (1,000 RV, MoE 3%): Ramaswamy 50, Acton 48; Impact Research Jul 24-28: Ramaswamy 47, Acton 46 (800 LV, MoE 3.5%); AARP Jun 2026: Acton 47, Ramaswamy 44; NYT/Siena: tied 47-47
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Josh Shapiro
(D) - Incumbent
Stacy Garrity
(R) - State treasurer
Quinnipiac: Shapiro 55, Garrity 37
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Jack Reed
(D) - Incumbent, seeking sixth term; won Sep 9 Democratic primary 76.8% (98,343 votes) over Burbridge (13.4%, 17,159 votes) and Munoz (9.8%, 12,483 votes) (RI Board of Elections final unofficial count)
Raymond McKay
(R) - Won Sep 9 Republican primary; general-election challenger to Reed
UNH Survey Center Granite State Poll (fielded Sep 17-21, released Sep 24): Reed 53, McKay 33 (Reed +20)
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Annie Andrews
(D) - Pediatrician, won Jun 9 Dem primary 61.5%
Darline Graham Nordone
(R) - Trump-endorsed appointed interim senator; won Aug 25 runoff over Ralph Norman (AP projection). Led Aug 11 primary 32.7%, Norman 24.6%.
Siena College Research Institute (released Oct 28, field dates unconfirmed, LV): Nordone 48, Andrews 48 (tied); East Carolina University (fielded Oct 19-24, LV, MoE ~4%): Nordone 51, Andrews 47 (Nordone +4); Emerson/Nexstar Jul 28-29 (n=500, MoE 4.3%): Norman 22%, Nordone 19%, Fry 12%, Sanford 11% (25% undecided); Aug 11 primary: Nordone 32.7%, Norman 24.6%, Fry 19.6%; Nordone won Aug 25 runoff. Targoz Media Research for SC Policy Council (field dates unconfirmed, ~Oct 26): Nordone 47, Andrews 46 (Nordone +1, within MoE, statistical tie); NYT/Siena (field dates unconfirmed, ~Oct 26): Nordone 48, Andrews 48 (tied); Impact Research for Andrews campaign (D-aligned, field dates unconfirmed, treat with caution): Andrews 45, Nordone 44 (Andrews +1, within MoE, statistical tie).
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Ken Paxton
(R) - State AG, won May 26 runoff over incumbent Cornyn
James Talarico
(D) - State representative, won Dem primary 52.4%
Trafalgar Group (fielded Oct 31-Nov 1, R-leaning firm): Talarico 48, Paxton 48 (tied); AtlasIntel (fielded Oct 28-Nov 1, 1,678 LV): Talarico 51.3, Paxton 45.4 (Talarico +5.9); On Point Polling (released Nov 1, field dates unconfirmed, 847 LV): Talarico 51.6, Paxton 46.1 (Talarico +5.5, field dates unconfirmed); NYT/Siena (released Nov 1, field dates unconfirmed, LV): Talarico 50, Paxton 43 (Talarico +7); Quantus Insights (fielded Oct 26-28, LV): Paxton 48.7, Talarico 47.6 (Paxton +1.1, within MoE, statistical tie); TSU/Barbara Jordan Center/YouGov (released ~Oct 29, field dates unconfirmed): Talarico 49, Paxton 47 (Talarico +2); SSRS for CNN (fielded Oct 20-27, 923 LV, MoE 4.2%): Talarico 49, Paxton 43 (Talarico +6); TPOR (fielded Oct 15-18, 2026, 969 LV, MoE 3.3%, D-leaning pollster, treat with caution): Talarico 51, Paxton 47, Brown (L) 2% (Talarico +4); Rasmussen Reports (released ~Oct 24, 2026, field dates unconfirmed): Talarico 45, Paxton 45 (tied, field dates unconfirmed); UH Hobby School of Public Affairs (fielded Oct 10-14, 2,000 LV, MoE 2.19%): Talarico 48, Paxton 46, Brown (L) 3 (Talarico +2, within MoE); UT/Texas Politics Project (reported Oct 14, field dates unconfirmed, MoE 3.34%): Talarico 50, Paxton 47, Brown (L) 1% (Talarico +3, within MoE); New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group for Cook Political Report (fielded Oct 9-13, 934 LV): Talarico 49, Paxton 44 (Talarico +5); Marist Poll (fielded Oct 8-11, LV): Talarico 47, Paxton 45 (Talarico +2, within MoE); YouGov (fielded Sep 28-Oct 5, 3,625 RV, MoE 3%): Talarico 50, Paxton 44 (Talarico +6; registered voters); NYT/Siena (fielded Sep 21-Oct 1, released Oct 3, 2026, LV): Talarico 51, Paxton 45 (Talarico +6); Fox News (fielded Sep 24-28, 881 LV, MoE 3%, bipartisan Beacon/Shaw): Talarico 51, Paxton 49 (Talarico +2, within MoE); Rasmussen Reports (field dates unconfirmed, released Oct 1): Talarico 46, Paxton 45 (Libertarian Brown 4%, 5% undecided; statistical tie, field dates unconfirmed); TPOR (fielded Sep 19-22, 1,007 LV, MoE 3.6%): Talarico 49, Paxton 44 (Libertarian Brown 3%, 3% undecided, Talarico +5); Marist Poll (fielded Sep 17-20, 1,139 RV, MoE 4.4%): Talarico 50, Paxton 44 (Talarico +6); TSU/Barbara Jordan Center (fielded Sep 15-19, 1,800 LV, MoE 2.31%): Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (Talarico +1; Libertarian Brown 3%, 4% undecided); SoCal Strategies fielded Sep 12-13 (649 LV, R-leaning firm): Talarico 50, Paxton 45 (Talarico +5); Emerson for The Hill fielded Sep 12-14 (1,000 LV, MoE 3%): Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (statistical tie); Mason-Dixon for Telemundo fielded Sep 8-10 (625 RV, MoE 4%): Talarico 46, Paxton 43 (3% Libertarian, 8% undecided); YouGov for N+ Univision (fielded Aug 27-Sep 4, 1,000 RV with Hispanic oversample): Talarico 48, Paxton 43 (Talarico +5); Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP (fielded Aug 30-Sep 1, 895 LV, bipartisan polling team): Talarico 48, Paxton 44; InsiderAdvantage (R-leaning firm, field dates unconfirmed, released ~Sep 9-10): Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (treat with caution); Overton Insights for TPPF fielded Aug 24-26 (1,167 LV, MoE 2.9%, R-leaning sponsor): Talarico 44, Paxton 43.6 (12.6% undecided); Slingshot Strategies (D, partisan) fielded Aug 24: Talarico 48, Paxton 42 (D-aligned partisan poll, treat with caution); UT/Texas Politics Project fielded Aug 5-13 (1,200 RV, MoE 2.83%): Talarico 42, Paxton 39 (3% Libertarian, 14% undecided); Emerson Aug 9-10: Paxton 47, Talarico 46 (tied within MoE); TSU/Barbara Jordan Center Aug 4: Talarico 47, Paxton 45; Fox News Jul 23-27 (1,006 RV, MoE 3%): Talarico 51, Paxton 48; TPOR Jul 15-17 (1,048 LV): Talarico 45, Paxton 40 (Talarico +5, MoE 3.4%); NYT/Siena: tied 47-47
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Greg Abbott
(R) - Incumbent, won primary with 82%
Gina Hinojosa
(D) - State representative, won primary with 59%
UH Hobby School of Public Affairs (fielded Oct 10-14, 2,000 LV, MoE 2.19%): Abbott 49, Hinojosa 46 (Abbott +3, within MoE); Marist Poll (fielded Oct 8-11, 1,196 LV): Abbott 49, Hinojosa 45 (Abbott +4); ReconMR for KXAN (fielded Oct 5-8, released Oct 13, 617 LV, MoE 4.4%): Abbott 48, Hinojosa 47 (Abbott +1, within MoE, statistical tie); YouGov (fielded Sep 28-Oct 5, 3,625 RV, MoE 3%): Hinojosa 48, Abbott 47 (within MoE, statistical tie; registered voters); NYT/Siena (fielded Sep 21-30, 2026, 615 LV, MoE 4%): Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46 (Hinojosa +3); ReconMR for KXAN (fielded Sep 8-11, 614 LV, MoE 4.3%): Hinojosa 49, Abbott 45 (Hinojosa +4, first nonpartisan poll to show Hinojosa ahead); Marist for NPR (fielded Sep 17-20, 1,139 RV, MoE 4.4%): Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46 (Hinojosa +3); TPOR fielded Sep 19-22 (1,000 LV, MoE 3.6%): Abbott 50, Hinojosa 46 (Abbott +4); Mason-Dixon for Nexstar (fielded Sep 8-10, 625 RV, MoE 4%): Abbott 48, Hinojosa 41 (Abbott +7); YouGov for N+ Univision (fielded Aug 27-Sep 4, 1,000 RV with Hispanic oversample): Abbott 47, Hinojosa 47 (tied, 5% undecided); Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) fielded Aug 21-24 (1,000 LV, MoE 3.3%): Abbott 49, Hinojosa 42 (Abbott +7)
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
Phil Scott
(R) - Incumbent, GOP nominee; ran effectively unopposed
Amanda Janoo
(D) - Economist; won Aug 11 Democratic primary narrowly over Aly Richards
Morning Consult (Feb 2026): Scott 74% approval, most popular governor in the country.
Updated: Nov 8, 2026
David Crowley
(D) - Milwaukee County Executive; won Aug 11 Democratic primary narrowly over Francesca Hong; endorsed by Gov. Evers
Tom Tiffany
(R) - US Representative, Trump-endorsed; won Aug 11 GOP primary
YouGov for City Forward Collective (released Oct 16, field dates unconfirmed, adults): Crowley 46, Tiffany 42 (Crowley +4, adult sample, field dates unconfirmed); Marquette Law School (released Sep 30, fielded Sep 16-23, 843 RV / ~692 LV, MoE 4.8% LV): Crowley 49, Tiffany 46 LV; 46-45 RV (Crowley +3 LV, within MoE); Marquette Law School (released Aug 26, fielded Aug 12-20, 891 RV, 738 LV, MoE 4%): Crowley 49, Tiffany 44 (LV); 44-44 (RV); TIPP Insights (field dates unconfirmed, approx. Aug 18): Crowley 47, Tiffany 43; Badger Battleground/Platform Communications, fielded Aug 12-13 (MoE 4.4%): Crowley 48, Tiffany 44; RMG Research/Napolitan, fielded Jul 20-24 and therefore pre-primary (MoE 3.5%): Crowley 46, Tiffany 43; GBAO for Protect Our Wisconsin/DGA, fielded Jul 30-Aug 3 (800 LV, MoE 3.5%): Crowley 47, Tiffany 44 (D-aligned partisan poll).
Updated: Nov 8, 2026